Remember the whole Lenin quote that we put at the top of our first blog post on this subject? About weeks where decades happen? Well, that has certainly come to fruition.
Much has happened since the NCAA announced that it would no longer prevent major junior hockey players from competing in Division 1 NCAA men’s hockey.
There have been 19 players commit to NCAA Division 1 programs who are currently playing major junior hockey, according to Chris Heisenberg’s 2025 commits list. (Shoutout to Chris—he has been the best in the game for reporting commits for close to 30 years now!)
We have seen emergency meetings of the BCHL’s Board of Governors.
We have heard rumours of the USHL employing hard-line tactics to try and retain players.
We know that there have been board meetings in the OHL where “aggressive expansion” has been discussed, specifically in the U.S. We are editorializing somewhat, but it doesn’t feel like a stretch to imagine that this could be a move to add USHL teams to the OHL.
One of the dynamics that we haven’t seen many talking about is how there will be fewer players who ever play either major junior or NCAA Division 1 hockey—let’s call this the ELITE TIER. There are currently 64 Division 1 men’s ice hockey programs in the NCAA and 60 major junior teams in the Canadian Hockey League, so there are 124 teams in the ELITE TIER. At roughly 25 players per team, that means there are about 3,100 players in the ELITE TIER. Up to this point, there has been minimal overlap between the two. Sure, a handful of players leave the NCAA to return to major junior teams every year, but the amount is statistically insignificant. Now, however, there is likely to be massive overlap between those players who play major junior hockey and the NCAA. It is not unrealistic to think that by far most of the players on the 60 major junior teams will go on to fill the roster spots on the 64 Division 1 programs in the NCAA. We could account for, say, 200 of those players going on to the NHL at some point prior to finishing an NCAA career, and another 100 or so for the four extra NCAA teams. (We would, however, expect the gap in the number of the teams between the NCAA and the CHL to close, or even flip, over time.) We continue to think that the USHL ends up in this ELITE TIER, and there are 16 teams in that league. If we account for another 200 or so who will leave because of injuries, academic issues, character issues, drop-off in performance, and so on, it is not unrealistic to think that the total number of players that ever play in the ELITE TIER may drop to somewhere around 2,000. That means somewhere in the vicinity of 1,000 players will never play in the ELITE TIER who previously would have.
Where these players end up and how they pursue their careers will be something to watch closely. At SkateGuard, we would anticipate that NCAA Division III and Canadian USports will absorb some of those players. The problem is that these provide no real means for scholarships, leaving players to foot the bill for this experience. You may also see more players move from Tier II Junior A directly to the lower levels of pro hockey. (Think the ECHL, SPHL, and the lower professional leagues in Europe.)
These dynamics will continue to evolve rapidly, and we will continue to pay close attention here at SkateGuard, where we are constantly looking for ways to help players help themselves, both on and particularly off the ice.
