Early Tremors Part 2: Canada’s major junior leagues may never be the same again

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Canada’s major junior leagues - SkateGuard

In Part 1 of this series, I talked about the seeming inevitability that the NCAA will reverse its long-standing ban on allowing in hockey players from Canada’s major junior leagues and about how that will open up new paths for aspiring young Canadian players. But the ripple effects will be felt everywhere in the hockey world. In this entry, we’ll take a look at the potential impact of an NCAA reversal on Tier 1 leagues north of the border, based on the way the majority of industry people we’ve spoken to seem to believe it will play out.

The OHL/WHL/QMJHL Drafts Become Even More Critical

These drafts have long been monumental events in players’ careers, and ultimately their lives. I can recount numerous stories of players’ confidence, attitude and overall mental health inflecting meaningfully as a result of getting drafted higher or lower than they might have been anticipating. These dynamics will only become more acute if CHL players can join NCAA teams. 

Generally, after a player’s U16 year, the path forward, in all likelihood, will very much go through major junior. This will increase the psychological pressure that players put on themselves (on top of what often comes from parents and player agents). There will also likely be some other dynamics that will come from this. 

These drafts have seen the level of “horse trading” increase significantly in the last 10 to 15 years. Whereas, before, there was the odd story of players and agents positioning themselves to get to their preferred destination through a major junior draft, today there is significant jockeying for position, with top players often finding ways of ending up at their preferred destination. Often times, players, player agents, parents, coaches and other advisors have used the narrative that the player in question will choose to go play NCAA hockey if they are not drafted by their preferred team. Should the U.S. court system decide that the NCAA is not permitted to prevent major junior players from playing under their umbrella, it would certainly take the teeth out of this tactic. Players, parents, agents and the like will certainly adjust. I have no fear that they will employ other means by which to funnel their players to their desired locations.

How Will Major Junior Teams Approach This?

You could see some interesting draft strategies evolve at the major junior level, particularly if a way opens for Canadian players to capitalize on NIL opportunities. Certainly, the more deep-pocketed major junior teams will be able to compete dollar-for-dollar for top talent, but where will this leave the small-market major junior teams? While the finances of major junior teams are not a matter of public record, it is generally accepted and understood that many of them already walk the line between profitability and an operating loss. If the cost of talent acquisition goes up meaningfully, it will change the economics for those teams considerably.

Additionally, if they are going to have to pay players more, they are going to be interested in ensuring that they are going to have the services of these players for four to five years, as they are accustomed to. Even some truly elite NHL players took some time to develop when they first got to major junior. No major junior team, deep-pocketed or not, is going to be interested in spending money to get a player to commit to their program only to see them walk away after a year or two to go join an NCAA program.  

This may change the way these teams draft. Will they pass on higher-end talent in favour of players they think have a higher likelihood of staying around until they are age 19 or 20? Will they discount more academically inclined kids for fear of them jumping to the NCAA at age 18? 

Another rule that will likely come under the microscope is the arrangement by which if a major junior player is drafted after his U18 season, for the next two years he either must play in the NHL or be returned to major junior. These are typically very high-end players—NHL first rounders, typically. With the NCAA now able to provide compensation to these players as early as age 17 (Macklin Celebrini is an example here), as well as the flexibility to play in the AHL after getting drafted, a number of factors come into play. One is the fact that if a player plays in the AHL as a teenager, he is still using a season of his entry-level contract. This puts the player one year closer to unrestricted free agency and provides his NHL club with one less season of “team control.” 

Similarly, the current rule that NHL clubs retain the rights of major junior players for two seasons after drafting them will likely come under pressure. A player on the “NCAA development track” could see his rights retained by an NHL club for five, six or even seven seasons after getting drafted by an NHL team (two to three more years of junior hockey, plus four years at an NCAA school).  

Finally, another one of the huge questions that will need to be answered is what happens with the “school packages” that major junior players typically accrue throughout their junior career. The current standard across the CHL is that a year of major junior service (generally defined as one game played in a season) equates to a year of post-secondary schooling. What feels like the likely outcome would be that signing an NCAA Letter of Intent would void your major junior school package. Precedent exists: if a player signs a professional hockey contract, then their major junior school package is voided. It would seem to follow, then, that if the court system rules that the NIL legislation makes the NCAA a professional environment, a player’s major junior school package would void upon signing an NCAA Letter of Intent. 

In short, big changes are probably coming to major junior, and while that would be generally good news for players, they will need to be prepared.

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